The air in the room at Mining Disrupt 2026 in Miami was thick with a specific kind of tension. It is the tension of a bear market that has stripped away the hype, leaving only the structural questions that bull markets tend to obscure. Nico Moran, CEO of Simply Bitcoin, opened the fireside chat by asking the audience how they were enjoying the downturn, a question that landed with the weight of genuine inquiry rather than sarcasm. He noted that those who were not building during this period should perhaps reconsider their presence in the industry. It was a blunt setup for a conversation about survival, strategy, and the future of one of the largest publicly traded Bitcoin companies, which holds a little more than 43,000 Bitcoin.
Raphael Zagury, who was named Chief Executive Officer of Twenty One Capital the day before the session, sat across from Moran. Recorded on July 22, 2026, the conversation centered on a provocative thesis: that the era of the passive Bitcoin treasury is ending, and that companies must evolve into operating entities to generate sustainable value. Zagury, founder of Elektron Energy, brought a Wall Street background to the discussion, framing his approach not as a rejection of Bitcoin, but as a maturation of how capital is allocated within the ecosystem.
The End of the Free Money Thesis
Zagury’s argument begins with a critique of the market dislocation that defined the early days of Bitcoin treasury companies. He described these firms as entities that took advantage of a gap in valuation, allowing them to issue stock at a premium to their net asset value (mNAV) and use that capital to buy more Bitcoin. While this strategy generated significant returns for early adopters, Zagury argued that it is inherently temporary. He pointed to Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), which he noted started early and executed with conviction, but emphasized that the dislocation itself is a moving target.
The core of his critique is mathematical and philosophical. If every company in the sector attempts to issue stock above mNAV, the market will eventually converge toward a ratio of one. Zagury warned that relying on this arbitrage as a primary source of return is dangerous for long-term shareholders. He suggested that while some dislocations may return in the future, they cannot be the sole foundation of a corporate strategy. The market’s ability to correct these inefficiencies means that companies must find other ways to create value if they wish to remain relevant beyond the current cycle.
There's no free money forever.
Raphael Zagury · 2:07
This perspective marks a significant departure from the narrative that dominated recent bull runs. It suggests that the easy money has been made, and the next phase of the industry will be defined by operational excellence rather than financial engineering. Zagury’s position is that shareholders should expect their companies to generate value through the same mechanisms that drive any mature industrial sector: cash flow, efficiency, and strategic asset allocation.
Why the Treasury Model Is a Dislocation
To understand why Zagury views the pure treasury model as insufficient, one must look at the volatility of the underlying asset. He acknowledged that Bitcoin has delivered annualized growth rates of 50 to 60 percent over the long term, but he emphasized the pain that exists between those high points. The current bear market is a stark reminder of that volatility. For a company with a balance sheet heavy in Bitcoin, this volatility creates a risk management challenge that is extremely tricky to navigate, particularly if the company is overlevered.
Zagury drew on his experience at Wall Street, where models are built to withstand worst-case scenarios. He argued that while there is nothing inherently wrong with the treasury model, it is a different model than the one Twenty One Capital is pursuing. The treasury model is essentially a leveraged bet on the price of Bitcoin. It offers beta, or exposure to the asset’s movements, but it does not necessarily offer alpha, or incremental gain over the asset itself. Zagury posits that for a public company, the goal should be to provide shareholders with a vehicle that can withstand the deep drawdowns of a bear market while still participating in the upside of a bull market.
I think heavy operating companies is a sustainable way to do that, right?
Raphael Zagury · 2:43
The distinction is subtle but critical. A treasury company is a passive holder. An operating company is an active participant. By shifting the focus to operations, Zagury is suggesting that the value of a Bitcoin company should not be measured solely by the amount of Bitcoin it holds, but by the quality of the cash flows it generates and the strategic assets it controls. This shift moves the company from the financial sector into the industrial and technology sectors, where valuation is based on earnings power and growth potential.
The Berkshire Hathaway Playbook for Bitcoin
When Moran asked what specific model inspired Zagury’s vision, the CEO pointed to Berkshire Hathaway. He made the comparison with a clear note of humility, acknowledging that Twenty One Capital had not yet built the infrastructure to fully execute this strategy. However, the parallels are striking. Berkshire Hathaway’s success was built on a core business that generated steady cash flow, which was then reinvested into a portfolio of high-quality assets. In the case of Berkshire, that core business was insurance, specifically companies like GEICO.
Zagury sees Bitcoin mining as the equivalent of insurance in the Berkshire playbook. Mining generates cash flow through the production of new Bitcoin, a process that is ongoing and repeatable. Just as insurance premiums provide a steady stream of capital for Berkshire to reallocate, mining revenues provide a stream of capital for Twenty One Capital to deploy into other opportunities. This model allows the company to diversify its holdings without diluting its core identity. It can invest in consumer brands, other technology companies, or infrastructure projects, all while maintaining a strong foothold in the Bitcoin ecosystem.
I make that comparison with humility because we haven't built anything yet, right?
Raphael Zagury · 4:47
A key element of this strategy is the management of teams. Zagury noted that in the Bitcoin industry, company cultures and management styles can be vastly different. A conglomerate approach that tries to build everything in-house often faces massive challenges in integrating these disparate cultures. Instead, Zagury advocates for a model where strong management teams are allowed to build their companies independently, much like Buffett allowed his subsidiaries to operate with autonomy. This flexibility is essential for navigating the fast-paced and often fragmented landscape of the crypto industry.
Defining the New KPI: Shareholder Value in Bitcoin
The shift from a treasury model to an operating model requires a shift in how success is measured. Zagury argued that the traditional metric of Bitcoin held is no longer sufficient. Instead, he proposed that the key performance indicator (KPI) should be shareholder value expressed in Bitcoin terms. This metric accounts for the fact that the value of the company’s assets is denominated in Bitcoin, and it provides a more accurate picture of how the company is performing relative to the underlying asset.
He explained that it is extremely hard to beat Bitcoin on a simple price basis, but it is possible to generate alpha by making smart investments in companies that are cash flow positive. He offered a hypothetical example: if a shareholder holds 100 Bitcoin and is offered the chance to invest 50 of those coins in a company with a five-year track record of paying out 20, the deal is one you take all day long. By exchanging some Bitcoin for shares in a performing company, the shareholder increases their overall chance of getting a higher return on capital, even if the number of Bitcoin held on the balance sheet decreases.
I think shareholder value in Bitcoin terms is the right KPI
Raphael Zagury · 8:54
This KPI aligns the interests of the management team with those of the shareholders. It ensures that the company is not just holding onto Bitcoin, but actively working to increase the value of each Bitcoin held. It also provides a buffer against the volatility of the asset, as the cash flows from operating businesses can be used to buy more Bitcoin during downturns or to reinvest in growth opportunities during upswings.
Beating the Asset, Not Just Holding It
The ultimate goal of this strategy, Zagury argued, is to deliver better risk-adjusted returns to shareholders than Bitcoin itself. He acknowledged that this is a very hard thing to do, and that it would not make sense to attempt it if it were easy. However, he pointed out that return is only one variable in the equation. Risk is the other. If a company can deliver the same value as Bitcoin but with lower volatility, it is providing a superior return to its shareholders.
Zagury cited the principles of modern portfolio theory, which suggest that diversification improves risk-adjusted returns. By diversifying into mining, buying other companies, and engaging in other strategic activities, Twenty One Capital can reduce the overall risk of its portfolio. This approach is not about betting against Bitcoin; it is about building a portfolio that is resilient to market swings and capable of generating consistent value over the long term. Zagury expressed confidence that if executed correctly, this model could sustain itself for the next 50 to 100 years of the Bitcoin industry.
So what we're trying to do is deliver better risk adjusted returns to our shareholders than Bitcoin.
Raphael Zagury · 10:17
As the conversation wrapped up, the label Zagury chose for his own company said it all: not a Bitcoin treasury company, but a Bitcoin operating company. This distinction will likely define the next era of the industry, separating those companies that are merely holding assets from those that are actively creating value. For Twenty One Capital, the path forward is clear: build the operations, manage the teams, and deliver on the promise of superior risk-adjusted returns. The stage is set for a new chapter in the history of Bitcoin mining, one that is less about speculation and more about sustainable growth. Investors and industry observers will be watching closely to see if this thesis holds up under the pressure of the market.